The Indo's Takes Have Always Been Shite. Now Their Maths Is Too.
The Indo's polling just doesn't add up: at this margin of error, public support for the protests could be as low as 47.55%.
Ireland’s pollsters have had a bad few years. A few weeks out from the doomed ‘Family and Care Referendums’, RedC Research predicted that 55% of voters would vote yes for the ‘family’ amendment, while an even higher 58% would vote yes for the ‘care’ amendment. In the end, the figures were 32.3% and 26.1% respectively. Not only were the pollsters' reading of the numbers way off, but their reading of the trends, too.
The reader will forgive me then, for having little faith in the polling in today's Irish Independent which claims 56% of the public support the fuel protests. If you exclude the 'don't knows' (6%), this rises to a whopping 60% of the population supporting the fuel protests.
I simply don't trust this: the left is divided on the issue, as evidenced by the various arguments advanced on Aontacht Media in the last few days. The right is divided, with large parts of the establishment right condemning the protests, while the fringe right like Aontú seek political capital from the protests. Social media is, as always, divided, and closer to home, my friends and my family are divided in their opinions of the protests. If there is a clear majority in favour of the fuel protests, I have yet to see it outside of the Indo.
But more than my own experiences over the last few days, the numbers just seemed out too. So I decided to take one for the team and run the sums, to see whether the percentage of claimed 'support' votes mapped onto the last true polling we have: the 2024 General Election.
The results, in the table below, show that the totals add up to only 51.55% of the public supporting the protests. This means the poll has a 4.45% margin of error, nearly one and a half times the 3% that is normal in polling with this sample size. If we exclude people who 'don't know' whether they support the fuel protests, this rises to a whopping 8.45%. At this margin of error, public support for the protests could be as low as 47.55%.
As I predicted yesterday, the government has now announced €505 million of measures largely benefitting large haulage and agri firms, despite a lack of any clear democratic mandate from the public.
While a further 10 c reduction in excise on petrol and diesel has been announced, this will still leave ordinary workers paying far more to fill their car than they would have in February. With no measures at all announced for heating oil, families and pensioners across the country will remain unable to afford to heat their homes.
There is one clear winner from these protests, and the Indo and the far-right have played a blinder in delivering for their millionaire masters. The question we'll be left pondering is how so many on the left read the room so badly.
